As of May 22, 2025, Nobina AB (publ)'s estimated intrinsic value ranges from $70.42 to $260.01 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $109.98 | +2.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $108.56 | +0.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $70.42 | -34.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $99.98 | -7.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $260.01 | +141.2% |
Is Nobina AB (publ) (NOBINA.ST) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $107.80, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Nobina AB (publ)'s intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 0.6% | 1.1% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.2% | 6.2% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.87 | 1.05 |
| Cost of equity | 5.2% | 8.2% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 22.7% | 23.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.2% | 5.9% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $109 | $14,358M | 80.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $110 | $14,480M | 64.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $33 | $7,852M | 63.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $58 | $10,012M | 48.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $1,337M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.9% - 4.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $22,707M - $32,119M |
| Net Debt | $5,000M |
| Equity Value | $17,707M - $27,119M |
| Outstanding Shares | 86M |
| Fair Value | $205 - $315 |
| Selected Fair Value | $260.01 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $9306M |
| Enterprise Value | $11810M |
| Trailing P/E | 11.93 |
| Forward P/E | 15.34 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 3.05 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 348.11% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 4.02% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.93 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $32.99 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $27.14 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $14.08 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $15.00 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $26.00 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $115.22 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Nobina AB (publ)'s weighted average intrinsic value is $115.22, which is approximately 6.9% above the current market price of $107.80.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Nobina AB (publ) is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.