What is NLS's Intrinsic value?

Nautilus Inc (NLS) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 25, 2025, Nautilus Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.00 to $0.00 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside

Is Nautilus Inc (NLS) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.82, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Nautilus Inc's intrinsic value, including:

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.2% 4.7%
Equity market risk premium 5.0% 6.0%
Adjusted beta 0.75 1.01
Cost of equity 7.9% 11.3%
Cost of debt 5.4% 7.0%
Tax rate 13.9% 18.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.96 0.96
After-tax WACC 6.3% 8.6%

Valuation Methods

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $30M
Enterprise Value $29M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 8.40
Current Dividend Yield 3798.43%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -5.49%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.96

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Weighted Average 100% $0.00

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Nautilus Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $0.00, which is approximately 100.0% below the current market price of $0.82.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-37% to -10% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Nautilus Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.