As of May 27, 2025, Nichols PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $776.21 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of -39.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $716.80 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $776.21 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -43.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -39.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.1% - 10.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $173 million in 12-2024 to $260 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 173 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 181 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 187 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 195 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 211 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 215 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 222 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 233 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 243 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 251 | 3% |
| 12-2034 | 260 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 10% in 12-2024 to 10% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 18 | 10% |
| 12-2025 | 19 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 19 | 10% |
| 12-2027 | 20 | 10% |
| 12-2028 | 22 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 22 | 10% |
| 12-2030 | 23 | 10% |
| 12-2031 | 24 | 10% |
| 12-2032 | 25 | 10% |
| 12-2033 | 26 | 10% |
| 12-2034 | 27 | 10% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 1 |
| 12-2026 | 1 |
| 12-2027 | 1 |
| 12-2028 | 2 |
| 12-2029 | 2 |
| 12-2030 | 2 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 84 |
| Days Inventory | 36 |
| Days Payables | 40 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 2026 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 2027 | 26 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
| 2028 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 2029 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 716.80 | -43.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 776.21 | -39.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 690.95 | +Inf% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 748.35 | +Inf% |
Is Nichols PLC (NICL.L) a buy or a sell? Nichols PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Nichols PLC (NICL.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of -39.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $0.00.