As of June 1, 2025, National Grid PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of -164.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -228.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -164.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.3% - 13.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $18378 million in 03-2025 to $52545 million by 03-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 18378 | 123% |
| 03-2026 | 19369 | 5% |
| 03-2027 | 22384 | 16% |
| 03-2028 | 25620 | 14% |
| 03-2029 | 29221 | 14% |
| 03-2030 | 32074 | 10% |
| 03-2031 | 36266 | 13% |
| 03-2032 | 39665 | 9% |
| 03-2033 | 43121 | 9% |
| 03-2034 | 47514 | 10% |
| 03-2035 | 52545 | 11% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 15% in 03-2025 to 15% by 03-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 2829 | 15% |
| 03-2026 | 2908 | 15% |
| 03-2027 | 3361 | 15% |
| 03-2028 | 3847 | 15% |
| 03-2029 | 4387 | 15% |
| 03-2030 | 4816 | 15% |
| 03-2031 | 5445 | 15% |
| 03-2032 | 5955 | 15% |
| 03-2033 | 6474 | 15% |
| 03-2034 | 7134 | 15% |
| 03-2035 | 7889 | 15% |
with a 5-year average of $6797 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 84% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2026 | 9102 |
| 03-2027 | 11763 |
| 03-2028 | 14700 |
| 03-2029 | 18132 |
| 03-2030 | 21673 |
| 03-2031 | 24519 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 115 |
| Days Inventory | 61 |
| Days Payables | 214 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14116 | 939 | 16313 | 1454 | (4,590) |
| 2027 | 17558 | 1085 | 18852 | 538 | (2,917) |
| 2028 | 21333 | 1242 | 21577 | 485 | (1,971) |
| 2029 | 25697 | 1416 | 24610 | 1542 | (1,871) |
| 2030 | 29977 | 1554 | 27013 | 649 | 760 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -228.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -164.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 623.93 | +Inf% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 945.06 | +Inf% |
Is National Grid PLC (NG.L) a buy or a sell? National Grid PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, National Grid PLC (NG.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -164.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.00.