As of May 22, 2025, Netflix Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of 2.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -15.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.4% - 8.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $39001 million in 12-2024 to $83545 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 39001 | 16% |
| 12-2025 | 43880 | 13% |
| 12-2026 | 48369 | 10% |
| 12-2027 | 53627 | 11% |
| 12-2028 | 58730 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 64465 | 10% |
| 12-2030 | 67970 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 72169 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 75778 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 79567 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 83545 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 22% in 12-2024 to 33% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 8712 | 22% |
| 12-2025 | 10361 | 24% |
| 12-2026 | 12457 | 26% |
| 12-2027 | 14902 | 28% |
| 12-2028 | 17456 | 30% |
| 12-2029 | 20344 | 32% |
| 12-2030 | 21687 | 32% |
| 12-2031 | 23276 | 32% |
| 12-2032 | 24699 | 33% |
| 12-2033 | 26204 | 33% |
| 12-2034 | 27794 | 33% |
with a 5-year average of $444 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 471 |
| 12-2026 | 505 |
| 12-2027 | 578 |
| 12-2028 | 678 |
| 12-2029 | 776 |
| 12-2030 | 845 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 13 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 95 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 10031 | 1526 | 474 | (306) | 8337 |
| 2026 | 15969 | 2446 | 697 | (13) | 12839 |
| 2027 | 19028 | 2926 | 773 | (139) | 15468 |
| 2028 | 22242 | 3428 | 847 | (119) | 18087 |
| 2029 | 25862 | 3995 | 929 | (56) | 20994 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -15.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 2.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 677.50 | +Inf% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 874.02 | +Inf% |
Is Netflix Inc (NFLX) a buy or a sell? Netflix Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Netflix Inc (NFLX) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of 2.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.00.