As of June 14, 2025, National Fuel Gas Co's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $29.35 to $161.47 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $93.34 | +10.9% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $44.85 | -46.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $65.95 | -21.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $29.35 | -65.1% |
| Earnings Power Value | $161.47 | +91.9% |
Is National Fuel Gas Co (NFG) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $84.15, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate National Fuel Gas Co's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| Cost of equity | 5.7% | 7.3% |
| Cost of debt | 4.6% | 4.7% |
| Tax rate | 17.5% | 20.3% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.1% | 6.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $45 | $6,952M | 93.6% |
| 10-Year Growth | $93 | $11,333M | 87.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $64 | $8,687M | 94.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $82 | $10,274M | 86.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $995M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.4% - 5.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $15,626M - $19,350M |
| Net Debt | $2,900M |
| Equity Value | $12,726M - $16,451M |
| Outstanding Shares | 90M |
| Fair Value | $141 - $182 |
| Selected Fair Value | $161.47 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $7603M |
| Enterprise Value | $10503M |
| Trailing P/E | 192.16 |
| Forward P/E | 74.25 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 6.35 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 249.84% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 4.64% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.37 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $28.00 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $11.21 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $13.19 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $4.40 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $16.15 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $72.95 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, National Fuel Gas Co's weighted average intrinsic value is $72.95, which is approximately 13.3% below the current market price of $84.15.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe National Fuel Gas Co is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.