As of June 12, 2025, Next Fifteen Communications Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $506.00 per share. With the current market price at $607.00, this represents a potential upside of -16.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $441.73 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $506.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -27.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -16.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.3% - 10.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $720 million in 01-2023 to $773 million by 01-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 0.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2023 | 720 | 53% |
| 01-2024 | 631 | -12% |
| 01-2025 | 675 | 7% |
| 01-2026 | 667 | -1% |
| 01-2027 | 680 | 2% |
| 01-2028 | 694 | 2% |
| 01-2029 | 708 | 2% |
| 01-2030 | 722 | 2% |
| 01-2031 | 737 | 2% |
| 01-2032 | 751 | 2% |
| 01-2033 | 773 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 01-2023 to 6% by 01-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2023 | 3 | 0% |
| 01-2024 | 13 | 2% |
| 01-2025 | 19 | 3% |
| 01-2026 | 24 | 4% |
| 01-2027 | 30 | 4% |
| 01-2028 | 36 | 5% |
| 01-2029 | 37 | 5% |
| 01-2030 | 39 | 5% |
| 01-2031 | 41 | 6% |
| 01-2032 | 43 | 6% |
| 01-2033 | 45 | 6% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2024 | 4 |
| 01-2025 | 5 |
| 01-2026 | 5 |
| 01-2027 | 4 |
| 01-2028 | 4 |
| 01-2029 | 4 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 79 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 78 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | 3 | 4 | (13) | 29 |
| 2025 | 31 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 12 |
| 2026 | 38 | 6 | 4 | (2) | 30 |
| 2027 | 44 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 29 |
| 2028 | 51 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 34 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 441.73 | -27.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 506.00 | -16.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 256.81 | -57.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 346.68 | -42.9% |
Is Next Fifteen Communications Group PLC (NFC.L) a buy or a sell? Next Fifteen Communications Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Next Fifteen Communications Group PLC (NFC.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -16.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $607.00.