As of May 29, 2025, Nextier Oilfield Solutions Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $20.14 per share. With the current market price at $10.61, this represents a potential upside of 89.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $16.32 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $20.14 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 53.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 89.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.7% - 11.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $3245 million in 12-2022 to $5761 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 3245 | 128% |
| 12-2023 | 3698 | 14% |
| 12-2024 | 3755 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 3844 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 4054 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 4270 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 4533 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 4794 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 5119 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 5500 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 5761 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 10% in 12-2022 to 10% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 315 | 10% |
| 12-2023 | 359 | 10% |
| 12-2024 | 364 | 10% |
| 12-2025 | 373 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 394 | 10% |
| 12-2027 | 415 | 10% |
| 12-2028 | 440 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 465 | 10% |
| 12-2030 | 497 | 10% |
| 12-2031 | 534 | 10% |
| 12-2032 | 559 | 10% |
with a 5-year average of $203 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 11% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 228 |
| 12-2024 | 268 |
| 12-2025 | 328 |
| 12-2026 | 379 |
| 12-2027 | 428 |
| 12-2028 | 446 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 53 |
| Days Inventory | 10 |
| Days Payables | 36 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2023 | 312 | 3 | 201 | 41 | 67 |
| 2024 | 671 | 5 | 409 | 23 | 234 |
| 2025 | 740 | 5 | 419 | (19) | 334 |
| 2026 | 813 | 6 | 442 | 32 | 334 |
| 2027 | 885 | 6 | 465 | 21 | 393 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 16.32 | 53.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 20.14 | 89.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 12.58 | 18.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 17.01 | 60.3% |
Is Nextier Oilfield Solutions Inc (NEX) a buy or a sell? Nextier Oilfield Solutions Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Nextier Oilfield Solutions Inc (NEX) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 89.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $10.61.