As of May 27, 2025, National Express Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $77.40, this represents a potential upside of -219.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -338.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -219.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.8% - 9.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2808 million in 12-2022 to $5184 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 2808 | 29% |
| 12-2023 | 3019 | 8% |
| 12-2024 | 3169 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 3281 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 3451 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 3584 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 3820 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 4190 | 10% |
| 12-2030 | 4425 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 4826 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 5184 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -8% in 12-2022 to 1% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | (221) | -8% |
| 12-2023 | (161) | -5% |
| 12-2024 | (121) | -4% |
| 12-2025 | (77) | -2% |
| 12-2026 | (31) | -1% |
| 12-2027 | 18 | 1% |
| 12-2028 | 19 | 1% |
| 12-2029 | 21 | 1% |
| 12-2030 | 22 | 1% |
| 12-2031 | 25 | 1% |
| 12-2032 | 26 | 1% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 157 |
| 12-2024 | 194 |
| 12-2025 | 189 |
| 12-2026 | 187 |
| 12-2027 | 193 |
| 12-2028 | 202 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 44 |
| Days Inventory | 5 |
| Days Payables | 46 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 30 | (14) | 176 | (8) | (124) |
| 2024 | 112 | (11) | 185 | 36 | (98) |
| 2025 | 157 | (7) | 191 | (1) | (26) |
| 2026 | 208 | (3) | 201 | 10 | (1) |
| 2027 | 270 | 2 | 209 | 16 | 43 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -338.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -219.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is National Express Group PLC (NEX.L) a buy or a sell? National Express Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, National Express Group PLC (NEX.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -219.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $77.40.