As of June 21, 2025, Puxin Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $39.61 per share. With the current market price at $1.36, this represents a potential upside of 2812.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $27.31 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $39.61 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 1908.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 2812.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 7.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2904 million in 12-2020 to $3998 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 2904 | 6% |
| 12-2021 | 2655 | -9% |
| 12-2022 | 2764 | 4% |
| 12-2023 | 2848 | 3% |
| 12-2024 | 3055 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 3150 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 3329 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 3524 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 3680 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 3754 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 3998 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1% in 12-2020 to 4% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | (37) | -1% |
| 12-2021 | 3 | 0% |
| 12-2022 | 32 | 1% |
| 12-2023 | 63 | 2% |
| 12-2024 | 98 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 132 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 139 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 147 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 154 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 157 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 167 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $71 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 88 |
| 12-2022 | 97 |
| 12-2023 | 103 |
| 12-2024 | 104 |
| 12-2025 | 114 |
| 12-2026 | 120 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 0 |
| Days Inventory | 3 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2021 | 107 | 0 | 79 | (2) | 31 |
| 2022 | 183 | 0 | 109 | 1 | 73 |
| 2023 | 221 | 0 | 113 | 0 | 107 |
| 2024 | 261 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 140 |
| 2025 | 308 | 1 | 125 | 0 | 183 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 27.31 | 1908.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 39.61 | 2812.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 6.14 | 351.5% |
Is Puxin Ltd (NEW) a buy or a sell? Puxin Ltd is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Puxin Ltd (NEW) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 2812.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $1.36.