What is NETW.L's Intrinsic value?

Network International Holdings PLC (NETW.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Network International Holdings PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $178.36 to $303.56 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $303.56 -24.0%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $203.79 -49.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $178.36 -55.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $206.27 -48.4%
Earnings Power Value $197.76 -50.5%

Is Network International Holdings PLC (NETW.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $399.40, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Network International Holdings PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.59 0.88
Cost of equity 7.5% 11.1%
Cost of debt 4.0% 5.2%
Tax rate 13.0% 15.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.16 0.16
After-tax WACC 7.0% 10.2%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $490 (FY12-2023) to $1,057 (FY12-2033)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 14% to 15%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 17% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $271 $1,735M 83.0%
10-Year Growth $403 $2,440M 70.5%
5-Year EBITDA $310 $1,946M 84.9%
10-Year EBITDA $384 $2,338M 69.2%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $178.36 (-55.3% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 11.1% (Low) to 7.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $106 to $442
  • Selected fair value: $206.27 (-48.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $140M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.2% - 7.0%
Enterprise Value $1,372M - $2,012M
Net Debt $293M
Equity Value $1,079M - $1,719M
Outstanding Shares 5M
Fair Value $203 - $323
Selected Fair Value $197.76

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $2127M
Enterprise Value $2348M
Trailing P/E 43.00
Forward P/E 38.74
Trailing EV/EBITDA 9.35
Current Dividend Yield 62.96%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.16

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $91.07
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $50.95
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $35.67
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $30.94
Earnings Power Value 10% $19.78
Weighted Average 100% $228.40

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Network International Holdings PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $228.40, which is approximately 42.8% below the current market price of $399.40.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (14% to 15% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.16)

Given these factors, we believe Network International Holdings PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.