What is NETC.CO's Intrinsic value?

Netcompany Group A/S (NETC.CO) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 14, 2025, Netcompany Group A/S's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $306.13 to $504.35 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $504.35 +72.1%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $408.20 +39.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $306.13 +4.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $469.70 +60.3%
Earnings Power Value $331.46 +13.1%

Is Netcompany Group A/S (NETC.CO) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $293.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Netcompany Group A/S's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.7% 3.2%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.28 0.44
Cost of equity 4.2% 6.5%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 23.5% 26.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.18 0.18
After-tax WACC 4.1% 6.0%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 5.1% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $6,541 (FY12-2024) to $13,022 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 7% to 7%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $408 $21,669M 87.0%
10-Year Growth $504 $26,236M 77.0%
5-Year EBITDA $390 $20,820M 86.5%
10-Year EBITDA $483 $25,225M 76.1%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 5.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $306.13 (4.5% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 6.5% (Low) to 4.2% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $135 to $805
  • Selected fair value: $469.70 (60.3% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $883M
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.0% - 4.1%
Enterprise Value $14,627M - $21,421M
Net Debt $2,279M
Equity Value $12,347M - $19,141M
Outstanding Shares 48M
Fair Value $260 - $403
Selected Fair Value $331.46

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $13918M
Enterprise Value $16197M
Trailing P/E 27.92
Forward P/E 27.46
Trailing EV/EBITDA 18.75
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.18

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $151.30
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $102.05
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $61.23
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $70.45
Earnings Power Value 10% $33.15
Weighted Average 100% $418.18

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Netcompany Group A/S's weighted average intrinsic value is $418.18, which is approximately 42.7% above the current market price of $293.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (7% to 7% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.18)

Given these factors, we believe Netcompany Group A/S is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.