As of May 24, 2025, Newmont Corporation has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $76.26 per share. With the current market price at $53.65, this represents a potential upside of 42.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $65.67 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $76.26 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 22.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 42.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.1% - 10.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $18682 million in 12-2024 to $31606 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 18682 | 58% |
| 12-2025 | 20422 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 21221 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 21810 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 23084 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 23745 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 25742 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 26783 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 27319 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 29863 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 31606 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 17% in 12-2024 to 27% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 3180 | 17% |
| 12-2025 | 4010 | 20% |
| 12-2026 | 4520 | 21% |
| 12-2027 | 4990 | 23% |
| 12-2028 | 5628 | 24% |
| 12-2029 | 6128 | 26% |
| 12-2030 | 6713 | 26% |
| 12-2031 | 7056 | 26% |
| 12-2032 | 7270 | 27% |
| 12-2033 | 8026 | 27% |
| 12-2034 | 8576 | 27% |
with a 5-year average of $2231 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 17% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 2653 |
| 12-2026 | 3031 |
| 12-2027 | 3333 |
| 12-2028 | 3571 |
| 12-2029 | 3684 |
| 12-2030 | 3862 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 18 |
| Days Inventory | 111 |
| Days Payables | 41 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 6130 | 1112 | 2558 | 300 | 2159 |
| 2026 | 9251 | 1672 | 3544 | 207 | 3827 |
| 2027 | 10198 | 1846 | 3643 | (214) | 4924 |
| 2028 | 11312 | 2082 | 3856 | 149 | 5225 |
| 2029 | 12110 | 2267 | 3966 | 19 | 5859 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 65.67 | 22.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 76.26 | 42.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 50.98 | -5.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 63.14 | 17.7% |
Is Newmont Corporation (NEM) a buy or a sell? Newmont Corporation is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Newmont Corporation (NEM) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 42.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $53.65.