As of April 4, 2026, nCino Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $11.28 per share. With the current market price at $17.10, this represents a potential upside of -34.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $4.69 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $11.28 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -72.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -34.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.5% - 9.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $595 million in 01-2026 to $1589 million by 01-2036, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 595 | 10% |
| 01-2027 | 661 | 11% |
| 01-2028 | 723 | 9% |
| 01-2029 | 805 | 11% |
| 01-2030 | 916 | 14% |
| 01-2031 | 1010 | 10% |
| 01-2032 | 1104 | 9% |
| 01-2033 | 1205 | 9% |
| 01-2034 | 1344 | 11% |
| 01-2035 | 1471 | 9% |
| 01-2036 | 1589 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 2% in 01-2026 to 11% by 01-2036, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 10 | 2% |
| 01-2027 | 19 | 3% |
| 01-2028 | 33 | 5% |
| 01-2029 | 50 | 6% |
| 01-2030 | 72 | 8% |
| 01-2031 | 94 | 9% |
| 01-2032 | 106 | 10% |
| 01-2033 | 119 | 10% |
| 01-2034 | 136 | 10% |
| 01-2035 | 153 | 10% |
| 01-2036 | 170 | 11% |
with a 5-year average of $8 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2027 | 9 |
| 01-2028 | 8 |
| 01-2029 | 10 |
| 01-2030 | 13 |
| 01-2031 | 15 |
| 01-2032 | 17 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 95 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 23 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 8 |
| 2028 | 42 | 3 | 13 | 21 | 5 |
| 2029 | 62 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 22 |
| 2030 | 88 | 5 | 17 | 26 | 40 |
| 2031 | 114 | 7 | 18 | 26 | 62 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 4.69 | -72.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 11.28 | -34.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 13.34 | -22.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 20.96 | 22.6% |
Is nCino Inc (NCNO) a buy or a sell? nCino Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, nCino Inc (NCNO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -34.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $17.10.