As of June 13, 2025, NCC Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $166.11 per share. With the current market price at $166.20, this represents a potential upside of -0.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $105.53 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $166.11 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -36.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -0.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.4% - 9.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $430 million in 09-2024 to $434 million by 09-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 0.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 430 | 32% |
| 09-2025 | 329 | -23% |
| 09-2026 | 346 | 5% |
| 09-2027 | 374 | 8% |
| 09-2028 | 382 | 2% |
| 09-2029 | 389 | 2% |
| 09-2030 | 401 | 3% |
| 09-2031 | 409 | 2% |
| 09-2032 | 417 | 2% |
| 09-2033 | 425 | 2% |
| 09-2034 | 434 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -8% in 09-2024 to 7% by 09-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | (34) | -8% |
| 09-2025 | (9) | -3% |
| 09-2026 | (2) | -1% |
| 09-2027 | 5 | 1% |
| 09-2028 | 13 | 3% |
| 09-2029 | 20 | 5% |
| 09-2030 | 22 | 5% |
| 09-2031 | 23 | 6% |
| 09-2032 | 25 | 6% |
| 09-2033 | 27 | 6% |
| 09-2034 | 29 | 7% |
with a 5-year average of $7 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 09-2025 | 8 |
| 09-2026 | 8 |
| 09-2027 | 8 |
| 09-2028 | 8 |
| 09-2029 | 8 |
| 09-2030 | 8 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 50 |
| Days Inventory | 1 |
| Days Payables | 6 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3 | (3) | 7 | 9 | (11) |
| 2026 | 12 | (1) | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| 2027 | 22 | 2 | 8 | (3) | 16 |
| 2028 | 32 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 14 |
| 2029 | 42 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 26 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 105.53 | -36.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 166.11 | -0.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 47.21 | -71.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 86.51 | -47.9% |
Is NCC Group PLC (NCC.L) a buy or a sell? NCC Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, NCC Group PLC (NCC.L) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -0.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $166.20.