As of May 22, 2025, NCAB Group AB (publ)'s estimated intrinsic value ranges from $50.91 to $85.86 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $85.86 | +91.8% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $62.61 | +39.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $59.66 | +33.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $75.09 | +67.8% |
| Earnings Power Value | $50.91 | +13.7% |
Is NCAB Group AB (publ) (NCAB.ST) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $44.76, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate NCAB Group AB (publ)'s intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| Cost of equity | 4.8% | 6.9% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 23.2% | 24.2% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.6% | 6.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $63 | $12,442M | 88.9% |
| 10-Year Growth | $86 | $16,790M | 80.9% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $19 | $4,325M | 67.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $30 | $6,360M | 49.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $554M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.6% - 4.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $8,451M - $12,057M |
| Net Debt | $736M |
| Equity Value | $7,715M - $11,321M |
| Outstanding Shares | 187M |
| Fair Value | $41 - $61 |
| Selected Fair Value | $50.91 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $8369M |
| Enterprise Value | $9105M |
| Trailing P/E | 38.54 |
| Forward P/E | 29.30 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 6.25 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 238.75% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 19.59% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.13 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $25.76 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $15.65 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $11.93 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $11.26 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $5.09 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $69.70 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, NCAB Group AB (publ)'s weighted average intrinsic value is $69.70, which is approximately 55.7% above the current market price of $44.76.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe NCAB Group AB (publ) is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.