As of May 22, 2025, NCAB Group AB (publ) has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $85.86 per share. With the current market price at $44.76, this represents a potential upside of 91.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $62.61 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $85.86 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 39.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 91.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.6% - 6.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $3614 million in 12-2024 to $8315 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 3614 | 12% |
| 12-2025 | 4004 | 11% |
| 12-2026 | 4400 | 10% |
| 12-2027 | 5057 | 15% |
| 12-2028 | 5624 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 6276 | 12% |
| 12-2030 | 6757 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 7094 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 7542 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 7919 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 8315 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 7% in 12-2024 to 7% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 255 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 286 | 7% |
| 12-2026 | 314 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 361 | 7% |
| 12-2028 | 401 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 448 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 482 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 506 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 538 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 565 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 593 | 7% |
with a 5-year average of $21 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 25 |
| 12-2026 | 29 |
| 12-2027 | 26 |
| 12-2028 | 21 |
| 12-2029 | 27 |
| 12-2030 | 30 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 66 |
| Days Inventory | 49 |
| Days Payables | 68 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 329 | 68 | 16 | 61 | 183 |
| 2026 | 483 | 100 | 23 | 25 | 335 |
| 2027 | 548 | 115 | 27 | 107 | 299 |
| 2028 | 602 | 128 | 30 | 85 | 359 |
| 2029 | 675 | 143 | 33 | 85 | 413 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 62.61 | 39.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 85.86 | 91.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 19.19 | -57.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 30.08 | -32.8% |
Is NCAB Group AB (publ) (NCAB.ST) a buy or a sell? NCAB Group AB (publ) is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, NCAB Group AB (publ) (NCAB.ST) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 91.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $44.76.