As of June 21, 2025, Noble Midstream Partners LP's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $6.21 to $268.68 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $268.68 | +1666.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $92.60 | +508.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $62.76 | +312.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $6.21 | -59.2% |
Is Noble Midstream Partners LP (NBLX) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $15.21, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Noble Midstream Partners LP's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.2% | 5.2% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.8 | 1.27 |
| Cost of equity | 6.5% | 10.8% |
| Cost of debt | 4.2% | 6.6% |
| Tax rate | 2.8% | 8.1% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.2% | 8.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $(1,234) | $1,303M | 90.5% |
| 10-Year Growth | $269 | $25,780M | 89.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $96 | $10,172M | 98.8% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $261 | $25,072M | 88.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $134M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.3% - 5.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,629M - $2,569M |
| Net Debt | $1,538M |
| Equity Value | $90M - $1,030M |
| Outstanding Shares | 90M |
| Fair Value | $1 - $11 |
| Selected Fair Value | $6.21 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1372M |
| Enterprise Value | $2911M |
| Trailing P/E | 8.85 |
| Forward P/E | 10.10 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 8.10 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 493.35% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 27.68% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.17 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 40% | $80.60 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 27% | $18.52 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 20% | $9.41 |
| Earnings Power Value | 13% | $0.62 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $145.54 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Noble Midstream Partners LP's weighted average intrinsic value is $145.54, which is approximately 856.9% above the current market price of $15.21.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Noble Midstream Partners LP is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.