What is NBI.L's Intrinsic value?

Northbridge Industrial Services PLC (NBI.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 29, 2025, Northbridge Industrial Services PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $103.96 to $404.56 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $216.68 +9.4%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $133.49 -32.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $155.33 -21.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $103.96 -47.5%
Earnings Power Value $404.56 +104.3%

Is Northbridge Industrial Services PLC (NBI.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $198.00, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Northbridge Industrial Services PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.9% 3.4%
Equity market risk premium 5.3% 6.3%
Adjusted beta 1.04 1.16
Cost of equity 8.5% 11.3%
Cost of debt 7.0% 7.2%
Tax rate 18.4% 26.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.12 0.12
After-tax WACC 8.2% 10.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.4% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $29 (FY12-2021) to $91 (FY12-2031)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 6% to 10%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 1% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $133 $42M 78.4%
10-Year Growth $217 $67M 60.7%
5-Year EBITDA $160 $50M 81.8%
10-Year EBITDA $221 $68M 61.3%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $155.33 (-21.5% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 11.3% (Low) to 8.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $61 to $147
  • Selected fair value: $103.96 (-47.5% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $11M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.6% - 8.2%
Enterprise Value $106M - $138M
Net Debt $3M
Equity Value $104M - $135M
Outstanding Shares 0M
Fair Value $351 - $458
Selected Fair Value $404.56

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $58M
Enterprise Value $61M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 20.24
Trailing EV/EBITDA 8.45
Current Dividend Yield 48.31%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.12

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $65.00
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $33.37
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $31.07
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $15.59
Earnings Power Value 10% $40.46
Weighted Average 100% $185.49

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Northbridge Industrial Services PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $185.49, which is approximately 6.3% below the current market price of $198.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (6% to 10% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.12)

Given these factors, we believe Northbridge Industrial Services PLC is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.