As of May 24, 2025, Navya SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.03, this represents a potential upside of -182588.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -125948.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -182588.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.8% - 9.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $10 million in 12-2021 to $110 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 27.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 10 | 5% |
| 12-2022 | 19 | 82% |
| 12-2023 | 31 | 68% |
| 12-2024 | 40 | 28% |
| 12-2025 | 49 | 22% |
| 12-2026 | 58 | 19% |
| 12-2027 | 68 | 18% |
| 12-2028 | 77 | 13% |
| 12-2029 | 88 | 14% |
| 12-2030 | 97 | 11% |
| 12-2031 | 110 | 13% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -237% in 12-2021 to -151% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | (24) | -237% |
| 12-2022 | (31) | -170% |
| 12-2023 | (51) | -165% |
| 12-2024 | (64) | -161% |
| 12-2025 | (77) | -158% |
| 12-2026 | (89) | -154% |
| 12-2027 | (104) | -153% |
| 12-2028 | (117) | -153% |
| 12-2029 | (133) | -152% |
| 12-2030 | (147) | -151% |
| 12-2031 | (166) | -151% |
with a 5-year average of $3 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 24% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 3 |
| 12-2023 | 4 |
| 12-2024 | 5 |
| 12-2025 | 7 |
| 12-2026 | 9 |
| 12-2027 | 12 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 117 |
| Days Inventory | 193 |
| Days Payables | 93 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2022 | (18) | (6) | 2 | 4 | (19) |
| 2023 | (61) | (19) | 7 | 8 | (58) |
| 2024 | (77) | (23) | 10 | 0 | (63) |
| 2025 | (90) | (28) | 12 | 7 | (81) |
| 2026 | (103) | (32) | 14 | 4 | (88) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -125948.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -182588.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Navya SA (NAVYA.PA) a buy or a sell? Navya SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Navya SA (NAVYA.PA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -182588.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.03.