As of June 22, 2025, Naked Brand Group Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.30 per share. With the current market price at $2.61, this represents a potential upside of -88.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.32 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.30 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -87.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -88.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.5% - 8.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $80 million in 01-2021 to $19 million by 01-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -13.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2021 | 80 | 11% |
| 01-2022 | 15 | -81% |
| 01-2023 | 16 | 2% |
| 01-2024 | 16 | 4% |
| 01-2025 | 17 | 2% |
| 01-2026 | 17 | 2% |
| 01-2027 | 17 | 2% |
| 01-2028 | 18 | 2% |
| 01-2029 | 18 | 4% |
| 01-2030 | 19 | 2% |
| 01-2031 | 19 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -85% in 01-2021 to -84% by 01-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2021 | (68) | -85% |
| 01-2022 | (13) | -84% |
| 01-2023 | (13) | -84% |
| 01-2024 | (14) | -84% |
| 01-2025 | (14) | -84% |
| 01-2026 | (14) | -84% |
| 01-2027 | (14) | -84% |
| 01-2028 | (15) | -84% |
| 01-2029 | (15) | -84% |
| 01-2030 | (16) | -84% |
| 01-2031 | (16) | -84% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2022 | 2 |
| 01-2023 | 1 |
| 01-2024 | 1 |
| 01-2025 | 1 |
| 01-2026 | 0 |
| 01-2027 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 31 |
| Days Inventory | 129 |
| Days Payables | 147 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2022 | (3) | (0) | 0 | (1) | (2) |
| 2023 | (6) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (6) |
| 2024 | (7) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (7) |
| 2025 | (7) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (7) |
| 2026 | (8) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (8) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.32 | -87.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.30 | -88.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.42 | -84.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.38 | -85.4% |
Is Naked Brand Group Ltd (NAKD) a buy or a sell? Naked Brand Group Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Naked Brand Group Ltd (NAKD) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -88.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $2.61.