As of June 10, 2025, Methanex Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $63.74 per share. With the current market price at $45.42, this represents a potential upside of 40.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $49.94 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $63.74 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 9.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 40.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.8% - 8.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $3720 million in 12-2024 to $5542 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 3720 | 0% |
| 12-2025 | 4182 | 12% |
| 12-2026 | 4445 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 4418 | -1% |
| 12-2028 | 4506 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 4690 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 5028 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 5129 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 5327 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 5433 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 5542 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 7% in 12-2024 to 6% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 250 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 263 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 279 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 278 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 283 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 295 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 316 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 322 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 335 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 341 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 348 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $357 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 10% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 370 |
| 12-2026 | 408 |
| 12-2027 | 378 |
| 12-2028 | 376 |
| 12-2029 | 432 |
| 12-2030 | 449 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 40 |
| Days Inventory | 58 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 583 | 39 | 305 | 22 | 217 |
| 2026 | 840 | 55 | 432 | 97 | 256 |
| 2027 | 808 | 55 | 429 | (4) | 327 |
| 2028 | 814 | 56 | 438 | 5 | 315 |
| 2029 | 889 | 59 | 456 | 51 | 323 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 49.94 | 9.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 63.74 | 40.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 43.79 | -3.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 57.88 | 27.4% |
Is Methanex Corp (MX.TO) a buy or a sell? Methanex Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Methanex Corp (MX.TO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 40.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $45.42.