As of June 15, 2025, McEwen Mining Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $8.62 per share. With the current market price at $9.39, this represents a potential upside of -8.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $7.34 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $8.62 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -21.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -8.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 9.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $174 million in 12-2024 to $180 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 0.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 174 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 144 | -17% |
| 12-2026 | 138 | -5% |
| 12-2027 | 141 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 150 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 153 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 163 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 169 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 172 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 175 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 180 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -25% in 12-2024 to -5% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (44) | -25% |
| 12-2025 | (30) | -21% |
| 12-2026 | (24) | -17% |
| 12-2027 | (20) | -14% |
| 12-2028 | (16) | -11% |
| 12-2029 | (12) | -8% |
| 12-2030 | (11) | -7% |
| 12-2031 | (11) | -6% |
| 12-2032 | (10) | -6% |
| 12-2033 | (9) | -5% |
| 12-2034 | (8) | -5% |
with a 5-year average of $35 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 24% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 39 |
| 12-2026 | 39 |
| 12-2027 | 41 |
| 12-2028 | 36 |
| 12-2029 | 35 |
| 12-2030 | 36 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 0 |
| Days Inventory | 66 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 30 | (2) | 26 | 2 | 4 |
| 2026 | 45 | (2) | 33 | (5) | 19 |
| 2027 | 53 | (2) | 34 | (0) | 20 |
| 2028 | 54 | (1) | 36 | 1 | 18 |
| 2029 | 58 | (1) | 37 | (1) | 23 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 7.34 | -21.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 8.62 | -8.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 2.93 | -68.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 4.06 | -56.8% |
Is McEwen Mining Inc (MUX) a buy or a sell? McEwen Mining Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, McEwen Mining Inc (MUX) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -8.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $9.39.