What is MTVW.L's Intrinsic value?

Mountview Estates PLC (MTVW.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Mountview Estates PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $9741.18 to $22519.32 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $16648.59 +72.1%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $12813.59 +32.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $16926.73 +75.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $22519.32 +132.8%
Earnings Power Value $9741.18 +0.7%

Is Mountview Estates PLC (MTVW.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $9675.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Mountview Estates PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.38 0.5
Cost of equity 6.2% 8.5%
Cost of debt 4.1% 4.9%
Tax rate 19.1% 20.7%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.18 0.18
After-tax WACC 5.8% 7.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.8% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $79 (FY03-2024) to $97 (FY03-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 36% to 39%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $12,814 $565M 81.6%
10-Year Growth $16,649 $711M 73.1%
5-Year EBITDA $8,799 $412M 74.8%
10-Year EBITDA $9,677 $445M 57.0%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 75.6%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.4%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.5%
  • Fair value: $16926.73 (75.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.5% (Low) to 6.2% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.5% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $8,341 to $36,698
  • Selected fair value: $22519.32 (132.8% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $30M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.8% - 5.8%
Enterprise Value $382M - $513M
Net Debt $76M
Equity Value $306M - $436M
Outstanding Shares 0M
Fair Value $8,029 - $11,453
Selected Fair Value $9741.18

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $369M
Enterprise Value $445M
Trailing P/E 13.62
Forward P/E 12.63
Trailing EV/EBITDA 9.50
Current Dividend Yield 542.64%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 5.74%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.18

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $4994.58
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $3203.40
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $3385.35
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $3377.90
Earnings Power Value 10% $974.12
Weighted Average 100% $15935.34

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Mountview Estates PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $15935.34, which is approximately 64.7% above the current market price of $9675.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (36% to 39% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.18)
  • Historical dividend growth of 5.74%

Given these factors, we believe Mountview Estates PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.