As of May 22, 2025, Mitie Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $122.84 per share. With the current market price at $155.60, this represents a potential upside of -21.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $88.34 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $122.84 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -43.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -21.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.4% - 9.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $4445 million in 03-2024 to $8664 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 4445 | 13% |
| 03-2025 | 4917 | 11% |
| 03-2026 | 5212 | 6% |
| 03-2027 | 5537 | 6% |
| 03-2028 | 6080 | 10% |
| 03-2029 | 6504 | 7% |
| 03-2030 | 6900 | 6% |
| 03-2031 | 7250 | 5% |
| 03-2032 | 7583 | 5% |
| 03-2033 | 8251 | 9% |
| 03-2034 | 8664 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 03-2024 to 3% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 131 | 3% |
| 03-2025 | 145 | 3% |
| 03-2026 | 153 | 3% |
| 03-2027 | 163 | 3% |
| 03-2028 | 179 | 3% |
| 03-2029 | 192 | 3% |
| 03-2030 | 203 | 3% |
| 03-2031 | 213 | 3% |
| 03-2032 | 223 | 3% |
| 03-2033 | 243 | 3% |
| 03-2034 | 255 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $25 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 28 |
| 03-2026 | 32 |
| 03-2027 | 33 |
| 03-2028 | 37 |
| 03-2029 | 43 |
| 03-2030 | 46 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 63 |
| Days Inventory | 1 |
| Days Payables | 18 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 91 | 14 | 19 | 17 | 42 |
| 2026 | 196 | 30 | 40 | 46 | 81 |
| 2027 | 207 | 32 | 42 | 51 | 83 |
| 2028 | 228 | 35 | 46 | 66 | 82 |
| 2029 | 248 | 37 | 49 | 60 | 102 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 88.34 | -43.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 122.84 | -21.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 85.59 | -45.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 109.65 | -29.5% |
Is Mitie Group PLC (MTO.L) a buy or a sell? Mitie Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Mitie Group PLC (MTO.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -21.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $155.60.