As of May 22, 2025, Marshalls PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $143.33 to $900.07 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $174.74 | -40.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $159.76 | -45.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $143.33 | -50.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $145.91 | -49.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $900.07 | +208.8% |
Is Marshalls PLC (MSLH.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $291.50, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Marshalls PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.92 | 1 |
| Cost of equity | 9.5% | 12.0% |
| Cost of debt | 5.5% | 6.1% |
| Tax rate | 21.1% | 24.3% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.4% | 10.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $160 | $629M | 73.8% |
| 10-Year Growth | $175 | $666M | 54.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $170 | $655M | 74.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $174 | $663M | 54.5% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $231M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.4% - 8.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $2,209M - $2,743M |
| Net Debt | $230M |
| Equity Value | $1,979M - $2,513M |
| Outstanding Shares | 2M |
| Fair Value | $793 - $1,007 |
| Selected Fair Value | $900.07 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $727M |
| Enterprise Value | $957M |
| Trailing P/E | 23.46 |
| Forward P/E | 22.17 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 9.25 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 289.72% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -12.87% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.26 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $52.42 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $39.94 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $28.67 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $21.89 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $90.01 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $232.92 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Marshalls PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $232.92, which is approximately 20.1% below the current market price of $291.50.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Marshalls PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.