As of April 4, 2026, Madison Square Garden Sports Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $132.60 per share. With the current market price at $324.51, this represents a potential upside of -59.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $93.44 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $132.60 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -71.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -59.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.0% - 8.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1039 million in 06-2025 to $1629 million by 06-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2025 | 1039 | 1% |
| 06-2026 | 1018 | -2% |
| 06-2027 | 1068 | 5% |
| 06-2028 | 1132 | 6% |
| 06-2029 | 1179 | 4% |
| 06-2030 | 1242 | 5% |
| 06-2031 | 1294 | 4% |
| 06-2032 | 1378 | 6% |
| 06-2033 | 1475 | 7% |
| 06-2034 | 1553 | 5% |
| 06-2035 | 1629 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -2% in 06-2025 to 9% by 06-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2025 | (22) | -2% |
| 06-2026 | 9 | 1% |
| 06-2027 | 28 | 3% |
| 06-2028 | 49 | 4% |
| 06-2029 | 70 | 6% |
| 06-2030 | 92 | 7% |
| 06-2031 | 99 | 8% |
| 06-2032 | 110 | 8% |
| 06-2033 | 122 | 8% |
| 06-2034 | 132 | 9% |
| 06-2035 | 143 | 9% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 06-2026 | 3 |
| 06-2027 | 3 |
| 06-2028 | 3 |
| 06-2029 | 3 |
| 06-2030 | 3 |
| 06-2031 | 3 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 19 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 6 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2026 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 2027 | 79 | 23 | 3 | (3) | 57 |
| 2028 | 117 | 39 | 3 | 3 | 73 |
| 2029 | 156 | 56 | 3 | 4 | 93 |
| 2030 | 197 | 73 | 3 | 1 | 119 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 93.44 | -71.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 132.60 | -59.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 49.14 | -84.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 79.55 | -75.5% |
Is Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS) a buy or a sell? Madison Square Garden Sports Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -59.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $324.51.