As of June 12, 2025, Morguard Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $661.60 per share. With the current market price at $114.53, this represents a potential upside of 477.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $559.18 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $661.60 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 388.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 477.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.1% - 7.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1127 million in 12-2024 to $1463 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1127 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 1137 | 1% |
| 12-2026 | 1167 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 1190 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 1263 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 1288 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 1314 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 1340 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 1396 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 1434 | 3% |
| 12-2034 | 1463 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 21% in 12-2024 to 21% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 240 | 21% |
| 12-2025 | 242 | 21% |
| 12-2026 | 248 | 21% |
| 12-2027 | 253 | 21% |
| 12-2028 | 268 | 21% |
| 12-2029 | 274 | 21% |
| 12-2030 | 279 | 21% |
| 12-2031 | 285 | 21% |
| 12-2032 | 297 | 21% |
| 12-2033 | 305 | 21% |
| 12-2034 | 311 | 21% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 0 |
| 12-2026 | 0 |
| 12-2027 | 0 |
| 12-2028 | 0 |
| 12-2029 | 0 |
| 12-2030 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 4 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 521 | 45 | 0 | 4 | 473 |
| 2026 | 713 | 61 | 0 | (1) | 653 |
| 2027 | 727 | 62 | 0 | (0) | 666 |
| 2028 | 772 | 66 | 0 | 2 | 704 |
| 2029 | 787 | 67 | 0 | (0) | 720 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 559.18 | 388.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 661.60 | 477.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 296.74 | 159.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 439.83 | 284.0% |
Is Morguard Corp (MRC.TO) a buy or a sell? Morguard Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Morguard Corp (MRC.TO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 477.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $114.53.