What is MPARK.IS's Intrinsic value?

MLP Saglik Hizmetleri AS (MPARK.IS) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 21, 2025, MLP Saglik Hizmetleri AS's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.00 to $3.01 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $0.00 -100.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $3.01 -90.5%

Is MLP Saglik Hizmetleri AS (MPARK.IS) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $31.82, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate MLP Saglik Hizmetleri AS's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 21.4% 21.9%
Equity market risk premium 10.2% 11.2%
Adjusted beta 0.48 0.7
Cost of equity 26.3% 30.2%
Cost of debt 17.0% 25.4%
Tax rate 27.8% 32.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.48 0.48
After-tax WACC 21.7% 25.9%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 3.6%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 28.2%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $0.00 (-100.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 30.2% (Low) to 26.3% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $2 to $4
  • Selected fair value: $3.01 (-90.5% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $5088M
Enterprise Value $7072M
Trailing P/E 63.43
Forward P/E 414013420000.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 7.10
Current Dividend Yield 10.09%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.48

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 57% $0.00
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 43% $0.45
Weighted Average 100% $1.29

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, MLP Saglik Hizmetleri AS's weighted average intrinsic value is $1.29, which is approximately 95.9% below the current market price of $31.82.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (3% to 0% margin)

Given these factors, we believe MLP Saglik Hizmetleri AS is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.