As of June 6, 2025, Mobilezone Holding AG has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $16.57 per share. With the current market price at $11.80, this represents a potential upside of 40.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $17.46 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $16.57 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 48.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 40.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 3.8% - 5.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1005 million in 12-2024 to $1403 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1005 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 1053 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 1074 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 1096 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 1117 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 1140 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 1190 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 1271 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 1297 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 1375 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 1403 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 2% in 12-2024 to 2% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 17 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 18 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 18 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 19 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 19 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 19 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 20 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 21 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 22 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 23 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 24 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $16 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 17 |
| 12-2026 | 18 |
| 12-2027 | 18 |
| 12-2028 | 17 |
| 12-2029 | 17 |
| 12-2030 | 18 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 54 |
| Days Inventory | 26 |
| Days Payables | 44 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 47 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 24 |
| 2026 | 48 | 5 | 17 | 10 | 17 |
| 2027 | 49 | 5 | 17 | (1) | 28 |
| 2028 | 49 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 24 |
| 2029 | 50 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 23 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 17.46 | 48.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 16.57 | 40.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 4.73 | -59.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 6.45 | -45.3% |
Is Mobilezone Holding AG (MOZN.SW) a buy or a sell? Mobilezone Holding AG is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Mobilezone Holding AG (MOZN.SW) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 40.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $11.80.