As of May 23, 2025, Motorpoint Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $867.84 per share. With the current market price at $146.00, this represents a potential upside of 494.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $681.73 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $867.84 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 366.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 494.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.4% - 13.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1087 million in 03-2024 to $1256 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 1087 | 25% |
| 03-2025 | 1008 | -7% |
| 03-2026 | 1039 | 3% |
| 03-2027 | 1059 | 2% |
| 03-2028 | 1081 | 2% |
| 03-2029 | 1118 | 3% |
| 03-2030 | 1147 | 3% |
| 03-2031 | 1179 | 3% |
| 03-2032 | 1207 | 2% |
| 03-2033 | 1231 | 2% |
| 03-2034 | 1256 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1% in 03-2024 to 6% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | (8) | -1% |
| 03-2025 | 7 | 1% |
| 03-2026 | 22 | 2% |
| 03-2027 | 38 | 4% |
| 03-2028 | 53 | 5% |
| 03-2029 | 70 | 6% |
| 03-2030 | 72 | 6% |
| 03-2031 | 74 | 6% |
| 03-2032 | 76 | 6% |
| 03-2033 | 77 | 6% |
| 03-2034 | 79 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $7 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 6 |
| 03-2026 | 6 |
| 03-2027 | 6 |
| 03-2028 | 6 |
| 03-2029 | 7 |
| 03-2030 | 7 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 4 |
| Days Inventory | 48 |
| Days Payables | 4 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 9 | (1) |
| 2026 | 44 | 6 | 6 | (15) | 47 |
| 2027 | 64 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 45 |
| 2028 | 83 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 58 |
| 2029 | 106 | 19 | 7 | (2) | 82 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 681.73 | 366.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 867.84 | 494.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 306.41 | 109.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 534.02 | 265.8% |
Is Motorpoint Group PLC (MOTR.L) a buy or a sell? Motorpoint Group PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Motorpoint Group PLC (MOTR.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 494.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $146.00.