As of May 31, 2025, Moonpig Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $110.25 to $293.45 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $293.45 | +18.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $267.42 | +7.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $133.47 | -46.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $110.25 | -55.5% |
Is Moonpig Group PLC (MOON.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $248.00, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Moonpig Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.77 | 0.91 |
| Cost of equity | 8.6% | 11.3% |
| Cost of debt | 5.2% | 6.4% |
| Tax rate | 22.8% | 24.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.0% | 10.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $267 | $1,016M | 77.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $293 | $1,103M | 59.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $169 | $685M | 66.3% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $211 | $826M | 46.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $44M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.4% - 8.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $424M - $554M |
| Net Debt | $120M |
| Equity Value | $304M - $435M |
| Outstanding Shares | 3M |
| Fair Value | $91 - $130 |
| Selected Fair Value | $110.25 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $831M |
| Enterprise Value | $951M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 22.62 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.10 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 62.96% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.16 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 35% | $88.04 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 29% | $66.85 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 24% | $26.69 |
| Earnings Power Value | 12% | $11.02 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $226.60 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Moonpig Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $226.60, which is approximately 8.6% below the current market price of $248.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Moonpig Group PLC is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.