As of May 23, 2025, John Menzies PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $153.26 to $4277.57 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $438.46 | -27.8% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $437.56 | -27.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $153.26 | -74.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $260.04 | -57.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $4277.57 | +604.7% |
Is John Menzies PLC (MNZS.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $607.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate John Menzies PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.61 | 0.86 |
| Cost of equity | 7.7% | 11.0% |
| Cost of debt | 5.1% | 6.2% |
| Tax rate | 45.6% | 48.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.8% | 6.5% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $438 | $900M | 77.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $438 | $901M | 64.3% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $68 | $562M | 64.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $143 | $631M | 48.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $245M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.5% - 4.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $3,773M - $5,067M |
| Net Debt | $499M |
| Equity Value | $3,274M - $4,567M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1M |
| Fair Value | $3,572 - $4,983 |
| Selected Fair Value | $4277.57 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $556M |
| Enterprise Value | $1056M |
| Trailing P/E | 30.66 |
| Forward P/E | 40.98 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.30 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -100.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.35 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $131.54 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $109.39 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $30.65 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $39.01 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $427.76 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $738.34 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, John Menzies PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $738.34, which is approximately 21.6% above the current market price of $607.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe John Menzies PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.