As of May 23, 2025, John Menzies PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $438.46 per share. With the current market price at $607.00, this represents a potential upside of -27.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $437.56 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $438.46 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -27.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -27.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.8% - 6.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1352 million in 12-2021 to $1590 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 1352 | 27% |
| 12-2022 | 1188 | -12% |
| 12-2023 | 1272 | 7% |
| 12-2024 | 1307 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 1333 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 1382 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 1410 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 1438 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 1467 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 1526 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 1590 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 1% in 12-2021 to 1% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 15 | 1% |
| 12-2022 | 14 | 1% |
| 12-2023 | 15 | 1% |
| 12-2024 | 15 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 15 | 1% |
| 12-2026 | 16 | 1% |
| 12-2027 | 16 | 1% |
| 12-2028 | 16 | 1% |
| 12-2029 | 17 | 1% |
| 12-2030 | 17 | 1% |
| 12-2031 | 18 | 1% |
with a 5-year average of $39 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 38 |
| 12-2023 | 37 |
| 12-2024 | 36 |
| 12-2025 | 37 |
| 12-2026 | 36 |
| 12-2027 | 37 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 57 |
| Days Inventory | 12 |
| Days Payables | 86 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 85 | 13 | 33 | (64) | 104 |
| 2023 | 88 | 13 | 35 | 20 | 19 |
| 2024 | 88 | 14 | 36 | 12 | 26 |
| 2025 | 90 | 14 | 37 | (6) | 44 |
| 2026 | 91 | 15 | 38 | 9 | 29 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 437.56 | -27.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 438.46 | -27.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 68.40 | -88.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 143.36 | -76.4% |
Is John Menzies PLC (MNZS.L) a buy or a sell? John Menzies PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, John Menzies PLC (MNZS.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -27.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $607.00.