What is MNST's Intrinsic value?

Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Monster Beverage Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $30.94 to $90.07 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $90.07 +21.8%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $72.69 -1.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $67.71 -8.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $86.82 +17.4%
Earnings Power Value $30.94 -58.2%

Is Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $73.97, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Monster Beverage Corp's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.48 0.56
Cost of equity 6.1% 8.0%
Cost of debt 4.5% 122.1%
Tax rate 22.6% 23.8%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.01 0.01
After-tax WACC 6.1% 8.4%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.2% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $7,493 (FY12-2024) to $15,651 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 20% to 30%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $73 $68,725M 87.7%
10-Year Growth $90 $85,706M 76.8%
5-Year EBITDA $45 $41,745M 79.7%
10-Year EBITDA $59 $55,479M 64.2%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.0%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $67.71 (-8.5% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.0% (Low) to 6.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $25 to $149
  • Selected fair value: $86.82 (17.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1,970M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.4% - 6.1%
Enterprise Value $23,351M - $32,527M
Net Debt $(2,293)M
Equity Value $25,643M - $34,820M
Outstanding Shares 977M
Fair Value $26 - $36
Selected Fair Value $30.94

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $72270M
Enterprise Value $69977M
Trailing P/E 41.85
Forward P/E 40.06
Trailing EV/EBITDA 11.85
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.01

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $27.02
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $18.17
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $13.54
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $13.02
Earnings Power Value 10% $3.09
Weighted Average 100% $74.85

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Monster Beverage Corp's intrinsic value is $74.85, which is approximately 1.2% above the current market price of $73.97.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (20% to 30% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.01)

Given these factors, we believe Monster Beverage Corp is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.