As of May 27, 2025, Monster Beverage Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $77.19 per share. With the current market price at $63.36, this represents a potential upside of 21.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $61.21 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $77.19 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -3.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 21.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.9% - 8.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $7493 million in 12-2024 to $14634 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 7493 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 7317 | -2% |
| 12-2026 | 8089 | 11% |
| 12-2027 | 8889 | 10% |
| 12-2028 | 9813 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 10514 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 11287 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 11851 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 12961 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 13609 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 14634 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 20% in 12-2024 to 30% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1509 | 20% |
| 12-2025 | 1614 | 22% |
| 12-2026 | 1920 | 24% |
| 12-2027 | 2250 | 25% |
| 12-2028 | 2632 | 27% |
| 12-2029 | 2971 | 28% |
| 12-2030 | 3220 | 29% |
| 12-2031 | 3413 | 29% |
| 12-2032 | 3767 | 29% |
| 12-2033 | 3991 | 29% |
| 12-2034 | 4330 | 30% |
with a 5-year average of $153 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 177 |
| 12-2026 | 206 |
| 12-2027 | 209 |
| 12-2028 | 209 |
| 12-2029 | 205 |
| 12-2030 | 223 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 60 |
| Days Inventory | 98 |
| Days Payables | 54 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 1673 | 373 | 126 | 65 | 1110 |
| 2026 | 2652 | 591 | 186 | 111 | 1765 |
| 2027 | 3081 | 693 | 204 | 122 | 2063 |
| 2028 | 3574 | 810 | 225 | 199 | 2340 |
| 2029 | 4007 | 914 | 241 | 111 | 2741 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 61.21 | -3.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 77.19 | 21.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 43.78 | -30.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 57.35 | -9.5% |
Is Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) a buy or a sell? Monster Beverage Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 21.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $63.36.