What is MMA.WA's Intrinsic value?

Malkowski Martech SA (MMA.WA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 20, 2025, Malkowski Martech SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $6.41 to $14.88 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $10.98 +143.0%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $6.41 +41.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $7.49 +65.7%
Earnings Power Value $14.88 +229.3%

Is Malkowski Martech SA (MMA.WA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $4.52, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Malkowski Martech SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 5.5% 6.0%
Equity market risk premium 6.3% 7.3%
Adjusted beta 0.31 0.46
Cost of equity 7.5% 9.9%
Cost of debt 4.0% 22.5%
Tax rate 18.9% 28.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.33 0.33
After-tax WACC 6.4% 11.4%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.9% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $54 (FY12-2021) to $130 (FY12-2031)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 1% to 9%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $6 $51M 79.1%
10-Year Growth $11 $88M 63.9%
5-Year EBITDA $7 $53M 79.6%
10-Year EBITDA $10 $82M 61.4%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.7%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $7.49 (65.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.9% (Low) to 7.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(1) to $(1)
  • Selected fair value: $-0.95 (-121.1% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $10M
Discount Rate (WACC) 11.4% - 6.4%
Enterprise Value $86M - $153M
Net Debt $(0)M
Equity Value $86M - $153M
Outstanding Shares 8M
Fair Value $11 - $19
Selected Fair Value $14.88

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $36M
Enterprise Value $36M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 19.71
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.85
Current Dividend Yield 154.87%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.33

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 35% $3.29
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 29% $1.60
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 24% $1.50
Earnings Power Value 12% $1.49
Weighted Average 100% $9.28

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Malkowski Martech SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $9.28, which is approximately 105.2% above the current market price of $4.52.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (1% to 9% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Malkowski Martech SA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.