As of June 19, 2025, Malvern International PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $14.10 per share. With the current market price at $16.50, this represents a potential upside of -14.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $11.30 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $14.10 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -31.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -14.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.7% - 10.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $17 million in 12-2024 to $49 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 17 | 36% |
| 12-2025 | 17 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 21 | 18% |
| 12-2027 | 25 | 22% |
| 12-2028 | 29 | 15% |
| 12-2029 | 33 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 37 | 11% |
| 12-2031 | 39 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 43 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 46 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 49 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1% in 12-2024 to -1% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2025 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2026 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2027 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2028 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2029 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2030 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2031 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2032 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2033 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2034 | (0) | -1% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 0 |
| 12-2026 | 0 |
| 12-2027 | 0 |
| 12-2028 | 0 |
| 12-2029 | 0 |
| 12-2030 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 18 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 61 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| 2026 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 1 |
| 2027 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2028 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| 2029 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 1 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 11.30 | -31.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 14.10 | -14.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.70 | -95.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 5.31 | -67.8% |
Is Malvern International PLC (MLVN.L) a buy or a sell? Malvern International PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Malvern International PLC (MLVN.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -14.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $16.50.