What is MKC's DCF valuation?

McCormick & Company Inc (MKC) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 2, 2026, McCormick & Company Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $87.69 per share. With the current market price at $48.38, this represents a potential upside of 81.3%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $73.98
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $87.69
Potential Upside (5-year) 52.9%
Potential Upside (10-year) 81.3%
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.3% - 6.9%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $6840 million in 11-2025 to $9805 million by 11-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.7%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
11-2025 6840 2%
11-2026 7185 5%
11-2027 7380 3%
11-2028 7527 2%
11-2029 8095 8%
11-2030 8264 2%
11-2031 8520 3%
11-2032 8690 2%
11-2033 9073 4%
11-2034 9338 3%
11-2035 9805 5%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 10% in 11-2025 to 15% by 11-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
11-2025 717 10%
11-2026 823 11%
11-2027 916 12%
11-2028 1005 13%
11-2029 1155 14%
11-2030 1254 15%
11-2031 1292 15%
11-2032 1318 15%
11-2033 1376 15%
11-2034 1417 15%
11-2035 1487 15%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $260 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
11-2026 261
11-2027 268
11-2028 274
11-2029 284
11-2030 305
11-2031 315

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 33
Days Inventory 106
Days Payables 105

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2026 1474 225 285 7 957
2027 1602 250 293 20 1040
2028 1726 274 298 20 1133
2029 1939 315 321 46 1257
2030 2089 342 328 17 1403

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 5.3% - 6.9%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 0.5% - 1.5%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 8.0x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 73.98 52.9%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 87.69 81.3%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 46.80 -3.3%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 61.95 28.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $23,760M
  • 10-Year Model: $27,441M

Investment Conclusion

Is McCormick & Company Inc (MKC) a buy or a sell? McCormick & Company Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, McCormick & Company Inc (MKC) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 81.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from 10% to 15%)
  • Steady revenue growth (3.7% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $48.38.