As of November 4, 2025, McCormick & Company Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $112.08 per share. With the current market price at $63.84, this represents a potential upside of 75.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $90.46 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $112.08 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 41.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 75.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.3% - 6.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $6724 million in 11-2024 to $10367 million by 11-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2024 | 6724 | 1% |
| 11-2025 | 6806 | 1% |
| 11-2026 | 6942 | 2% |
| 11-2027 | 7360 | 6% |
| 11-2028 | 7733 | 5% |
| 11-2029 | 8035 | 4% |
| 11-2030 | 8762 | 9% |
| 11-2031 | 9232 | 5% |
| 11-2032 | 9416 | 2% |
| 11-2033 | 9994 | 6% |
| 11-2034 | 10367 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 11% in 11-2024 to 15% by 11-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2024 | 714 | 11% |
| 11-2025 | 787 | 12% |
| 11-2026 | 869 | 13% |
| 11-2027 | 990 | 13% |
| 11-2028 | 1111 | 14% |
| 11-2029 | 1227 | 15% |
| 11-2030 | 1338 | 15% |
| 11-2031 | 1410 | 15% |
| 11-2032 | 1438 | 15% |
| 11-2033 | 1526 | 15% |
| 11-2034 | 1583 | 15% |
with a 5-year average of $261 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 11-2025 | 272 |
| 11-2026 | 273 |
| 11-2027 | 282 |
| 11-2028 | 293 |
| 11-2029 | 304 |
| 11-2030 | 320 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 32 |
| Days Inventory | 109 |
| Days Payables | 104 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | 358 | 51 | 70 | 18 | 218 |
| 2026 | 1539 | 227 | 286 | (29) | 1054 |
| 2027 | 1710 | 259 | 303 | 43 | 1105 |
| 2028 | 1883 | 291 | 319 | 45 | 1229 |
| 2029 | 2047 | 321 | 331 | 18 | 1377 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 90.46 | 41.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 112.08 | 75.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 47.85 | -25.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 68.06 | 6.6% |
Is McCormick & Company Inc (MKC) a buy or a sell? McCormick & Company Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, McCormick & Company Inc (MKC) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 75.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $63.84.