As of April 2, 2026, McCormick & Company Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $87.69 per share. With the current market price at $48.38, this represents a potential upside of 81.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $73.98 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $87.69 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 52.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 81.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.3% - 6.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $6840 million in 11-2025 to $9805 million by 11-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2025 | 6840 | 2% |
| 11-2026 | 7185 | 5% |
| 11-2027 | 7380 | 3% |
| 11-2028 | 7527 | 2% |
| 11-2029 | 8095 | 8% |
| 11-2030 | 8264 | 2% |
| 11-2031 | 8520 | 3% |
| 11-2032 | 8690 | 2% |
| 11-2033 | 9073 | 4% |
| 11-2034 | 9338 | 3% |
| 11-2035 | 9805 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 10% in 11-2025 to 15% by 11-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2025 | 717 | 10% |
| 11-2026 | 823 | 11% |
| 11-2027 | 916 | 12% |
| 11-2028 | 1005 | 13% |
| 11-2029 | 1155 | 14% |
| 11-2030 | 1254 | 15% |
| 11-2031 | 1292 | 15% |
| 11-2032 | 1318 | 15% |
| 11-2033 | 1376 | 15% |
| 11-2034 | 1417 | 15% |
| 11-2035 | 1487 | 15% |
with a 5-year average of $260 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 11-2026 | 261 |
| 11-2027 | 268 |
| 11-2028 | 274 |
| 11-2029 | 284 |
| 11-2030 | 305 |
| 11-2031 | 315 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 33 |
| Days Inventory | 106 |
| Days Payables | 105 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1474 | 225 | 285 | 7 | 957 |
| 2027 | 1602 | 250 | 293 | 20 | 1040 |
| 2028 | 1726 | 274 | 298 | 20 | 1133 |
| 2029 | 1939 | 315 | 321 | 46 | 1257 |
| 2030 | 2089 | 342 | 328 | 17 | 1403 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 73.98 | 52.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 87.69 | 81.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 46.80 | -3.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 61.95 | 28.0% |
Is McCormick & Company Inc (MKC) a buy or a sell? McCormick & Company Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, McCormick & Company Inc (MKC) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 81.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $48.38.