What is MIG.L's Intrinsic value?

Mobeus Income & Growth 2 VCT PLC (MIG.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 28, 2025, Mobeus Income & Growth 2 VCT PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $11.78 to $98.27 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $58.09 +1.9%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $55.04 -3.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $77.34 +35.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $11.78 -79.3%
Earnings Power Value $98.27 +72.4%

Is Mobeus Income & Growth 2 VCT PLC (MIG.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $57.00, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Mobeus Income & Growth 2 VCT PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 1.55 1.65
Cost of equity 13.3% 16.5%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 19.0% 19.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 8.7% 10.3%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.5% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $(8) (FY03-2023) to $5 (FY03-2033)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 127% to 103%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $55 $50M 71.4%
10-Year Growth $58 $53M 50.3%
5-Year EBITDA $84 $77M 81.5%
10-Year EBITDA $80 $73M 64.1%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 700.8%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 14.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $77.34 (35.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 16.5% (Low) to 13.3% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $8 to $16
  • Selected fair value: $11.78 (-79.3% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $9M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.3% - 8.7%
Enterprise Value $83M - $98M
Net Debt $(2)M
Equity Value $85M - $100M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $90 - $106
Selected Fair Value $98.27

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $54M
Enterprise Value $52M
Trailing P/E 32.11
Forward P/E 14.58
Trailing EV/EBITDA 19.55
Current Dividend Yield 2182.37%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 47.70%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.11

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $17.43
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $13.76
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $15.47
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $1.77
Earnings Power Value 10% $9.83
Weighted Average 100% $58.25

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Mobeus Income & Growth 2 VCT PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $58.25, which is approximately 2.2% above the current market price of $57.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (127% to 103% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 47.70%

Given these factors, we believe Mobeus Income & Growth 2 VCT PLC is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.