What is MID.UN.TO's Intrinsic value?

MINT Income Fund (MID.UN.TO) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, MINT Income Fund's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $9.35 to $36.43 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $36.43 +365.9%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $32.34 +313.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $24.69 +215.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $9.35 +19.5%
Earnings Power Value $11.32 +44.8%

Is MINT Income Fund (MID.UN.TO) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $7.82, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate MINT Income Fund's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.8 0.88
Cost of equity 7.2% 9.6%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 0.5% 0.7%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.29 0.29
After-tax WACC 6.7% 8.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $23 (FY12-2024) to $33 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 89% to 89%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $32 $345M 73.2%
10-Year Growth $36 $386M 53.8%
5-Year EBITDA $23 $253M 63.5%
10-Year EBITDA $29 $311M 42.6%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 58.7%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.4%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $24.69 (215.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.6% (Low) to 7.2% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $6 to $12
  • Selected fair value: $9.35 (19.5% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $10M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.5% - 6.7%
Enterprise Value $118M - $149M
Net Debt $20M
Equity Value $98M - $129M
Outstanding Shares 10M
Fair Value $10 - $13
Selected Fair Value $11.32

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $79M
Enterprise Value $98M
Trailing P/E 9.09
Forward P/E 3.66
Trailing EV/EBITDA 8.95
Current Dividend Yield 645.30%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -7.98%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.29

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $10.93
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $8.08
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $4.94
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $1.40
Earnings Power Value 10% $1.13
Weighted Average 100% $26.49

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, MINT Income Fund's intrinsic value is $26.49, which is approximately 238.7% above the current market price of $7.82.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (89% to 89% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.29)

Given these factors, we believe MINT Income Fund is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.