As of June 3, 2025, Medica Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $199.73 per share. With the current market price at $211.00, this represents a potential upside of -5.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $146.94 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $199.73 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -30.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -5.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.7% - 9.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $77 million in 12-2022 to $165 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 77 | 24% |
| 12-2023 | 81 | 5% |
| 12-2024 | 92 | 14% |
| 12-2025 | 102 | 11% |
| 12-2026 | 113 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 126 | 11% |
| 12-2028 | 134 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 142 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 150 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 157 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 165 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 9% in 12-2022 to 13% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 7 | 9% |
| 12-2023 | 8 | 10% |
| 12-2024 | 10 | 11% |
| 12-2025 | 12 | 11% |
| 12-2026 | 14 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 16 | 13% |
| 12-2028 | 17 | 13% |
| 12-2029 | 18 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 19 | 13% |
| 12-2031 | 20 | 13% |
| 12-2032 | 21 | 13% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 3 |
| 12-2024 | 3 |
| 12-2025 | 4 |
| 12-2026 | 4 |
| 12-2027 | 5 |
| 12-2028 | 5 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 69 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 45 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 12 | 2 | 4 | (0) | 7 |
| 2024 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 2025 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 2026 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 2027 | 25 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 146.94 | -30.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 199.73 | -5.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 131.66 | -37.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 169.96 | -19.5% |
Is Medica Group PLC (MGP.L) a buy or a sell? Medica Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Medica Group PLC (MGP.L) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -5.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $211.00.