As of December 15, 2025, Morgan Sindall Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of -39.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -39.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -39.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.1% - 10.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $4546 million in 12-2024 to $8878 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 4546 | 10% |
| 12-2025 | 4865 | 7% |
| 12-2026 | 5121 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 5509 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 5795 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 6131 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 6542 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 7030 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 7502 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 8073 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 8878 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 12-2024 to 3% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 132 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 141 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 148 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 160 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 168 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 178 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 190 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 204 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 217 | 3% |
| 12-2033 | 234 | 3% |
| 12-2034 | 257 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $12 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 13 |
| 12-2026 | 15 |
| 12-2027 | 16 |
| 12-2028 | 17 |
| 12-2029 | 17 |
| 12-2030 | 18 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 56 |
| Days Inventory | 39 |
| Days Payables | 20 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 92 | 22 | 7 | 47 | 16 |
| 2026 | 194 | 45 | 16 | 33 | 100 |
| 2027 | 208 | 49 | 17 | 77 | 66 |
| 2028 | 219 | 51 | 18 | 62 | 88 |
| 2029 | 231 | 54 | 19 | 61 | 97 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -39.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -39.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 3412.43 | +Inf% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 3651.22 | +Inf% |
Is Morgan Sindall Group PLC (MGNS.L) a buy or a sell? Morgan Sindall Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Morgan Sindall Group PLC (MGNS.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -39.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.00.