What is MGNS.L's DCF valuation?

Morgan Sindall Group PLC (MGNS.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Morgan Sindall Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of -39.6%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -39.1%
Potential Upside (10-year) -39.6%
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.1% - 10.9%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $4546 million in 12-2024 to $8878 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.9%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2024 4546 10%
12-2025 4865 7%
12-2026 5121 5%
12-2027 5509 8%
12-2028 5795 5%
12-2029 6131 6%
12-2030 6542 7%
12-2031 7030 7%
12-2032 7502 7%
12-2033 8073 8%
12-2034 8878 10%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 12-2024 to 3% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2024 132 3%
12-2025 141 3%
12-2026 148 3%
12-2027 160 3%
12-2028 168 3%
12-2029 178 3%
12-2030 190 3%
12-2031 204 3%
12-2032 217 3%
12-2033 234 3%
12-2034 257 3%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $12 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2025 13
12-2026 15
12-2027 16
12-2028 17
12-2029 17
12-2030 18

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 56
Days Inventory 39
Days Payables 20

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
6M/2025 92 22 7 47 16
2026 194 45 16 33 100
2027 208 49 17 77 66
2028 219 51 18 62 88
2029 231 54 19 61 97

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 8.1% - 10.9%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 1.0% - 3.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 7.2x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -39.1%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -39.6%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 3412.43 +Inf%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 3651.22 +Inf%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $1,055M
  • 10-Year Model: $1,044M

Investment Conclusion

Is Morgan Sindall Group PLC (MGNS.L) a buy or a sell? Morgan Sindall Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Morgan Sindall Group PLC (MGNS.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -39.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Steady revenue growth (6.9% CAGR)

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.00.