As of May 23, 2025, Magnite Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $9.05 per share. With the current market price at $15.60, this represents a potential upside of -42.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.46 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $9.05 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -97.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -42.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.8% - 10.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $668 million in 12-2024 to $1831 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 668 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 685 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 769 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 854 | 11% |
| 12-2028 | 955 | 12% |
| 12-2029 | 1082 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 1217 | 12% |
| 12-2031 | 1329 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 1490 | 12% |
| 12-2033 | 1644 | 10% |
| 12-2034 | 1831 | 11% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 12-2024 to 14% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 23 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 39 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 57 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 78 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 102 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 132 | 12% |
| 12-2030 | 152 | 13% |
| 12-2031 | 170 | 13% |
| 12-2032 | 195 | 13% |
| 12-2033 | 220 | 13% |
| 12-2034 | 250 | 14% |
with a 5-year average of $36 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 7% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 42 |
| 12-2026 | 47 |
| 12-2027 | 51 |
| 12-2028 | 58 |
| 12-2029 | 64 |
| 12-2030 | 72 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 655 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 1,510 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 105 | 2 | 51 | 435 | (383) |
| 2026 | 132 | 2 | 57 | 51 | 22 |
| 2027 | 160 | 3 | 63 | (26) | 120 |
| 2028 | 195 | 4 | 70 | 193 | (73) |
| 2029 | 237 | 5 | 80 | 107 | 45 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.46 | -97.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 9.05 | -42.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 12.14 | -22.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 18.38 | 17.8% |
Is Magnite Inc (MGNI) a buy or a sell? Magnite Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Magnite Inc (MGNI) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -42.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $15.60.