As of June 10, 2025, MoneyGram International Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $10.18 to $30.20 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $25.07 | +128.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $21.64 | +96.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $13.71 | +24.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $10.18 | -7.4% |
| Earnings Power Value | $30.20 | +174.8% |
Is MoneyGram International Inc (MGI) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $10.99, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate MoneyGram International Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| Cost of equity | 6.4% | 8.6% |
| Cost of debt | 7.1% | 9.1% |
| Tax rate | 26.2% | 27.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.9% | 7.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $22 | $2,763M | 82.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $25 | $3,098M | 71.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $16 | $2,219M | 77.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $18 | $2,381M | 62.3% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $242M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.8% - 5.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $3,111M - $4,089M |
| Net Debt | $648M |
| Equity Value | $2,463M - $3,440M |
| Outstanding Shares | 98M |
| Fair Value | $25 - $35 |
| Selected Fair Value | $30.20 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1074M |
| Enterprise Value | $1722M |
| Trailing P/E | 31.50 |
| Forward P/E | 25.76 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 11.00 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -15.07% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.73 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $7.52 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $5.41 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $2.74 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $1.53 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $3.02 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $20.22 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, MoneyGram International Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $20.22, which is approximately 84.0% above the current market price of $10.99.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe MoneyGram International Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.