As of June 12, 2025, Meggitt PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $710.14 per share. With the current market price at $798.80, this represents a potential upside of -11.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $454.16 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $710.14 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -43.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -11.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.4% - 10.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1489 million in 12-2021 to $3437 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 1489 | 12% |
| 12-2022 | 1871 | 26% |
| 12-2023 | 1999 | 7% |
| 12-2024 | 2152 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 2345 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 2532 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 2677 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 2819 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 3022 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 3217 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 3437 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 2% in 12-2021 to 18% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 31 | 2% |
| 12-2022 | 92 | 5% |
| 12-2023 | 156 | 8% |
| 12-2024 | 227 | 11% |
| 12-2025 | 308 | 13% |
| 12-2026 | 395 | 16% |
| 12-2027 | 430 | 16% |
| 12-2028 | 466 | 17% |
| 12-2029 | 514 | 17% |
| 12-2030 | 561 | 17% |
| 12-2031 | 615 | 18% |
with a 5-year average of $134 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 7% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 132 |
| 12-2023 | 133 |
| 12-2024 | 134 |
| 12-2025 | 140 |
| 12-2026 | 155 |
| 12-2027 | 166 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 64 |
| Days Inventory | 141 |
| Days Payables | 48 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2022 | 135 | 5 | 67 | 4 | 59 |
| 2023 | 345 | 18 | 142 | 55 | 129 |
| 2024 | 427 | 26 | 153 | 63 | 185 |
| 2025 | 528 | 36 | 167 | 18 | 308 |
| 2026 | 643 | 46 | 180 | 53 | 364 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 454.16 | -43.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 710.14 | -11.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 517.44 | -35.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 718.81 | -10.0% |
Is Meggitt PLC (MGGT.L) a buy or a sell? Meggitt PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Meggitt PLC (MGGT.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -11.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $798.80.