As of June 21, 2025, Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $4.10 per share. With the current market price at $6.81, this represents a potential upside of -39.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $4.10 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -124.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -39.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.6% - 7.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $588 million in 12-2022 to $821 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 588 | 61% |
| 12-2023 | 620 | 5% |
| 12-2024 | 638 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 661 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 701 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 715 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 729 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 743 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 771 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 787 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 821 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -3% in 12-2022 to 1% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | (20) | -3% |
| 12-2023 | (44) | -7% |
| 12-2024 | (33) | -5% |
| 12-2025 | (22) | -3% |
| 12-2026 | (12) | -2% |
| 12-2027 | (1) | 0% |
| 12-2028 | 2 | 0% |
| 12-2029 | 4 | 1% |
| 12-2030 | 6 | 1% |
| 12-2031 | 9 | 1% |
| 12-2032 | 12 | 1% |
with a 5-year average of $98 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 7% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 78 |
| 12-2024 | 61 |
| 12-2025 | 49 |
| 12-2026 | 43 |
| 12-2027 | 46 |
| 12-2028 | 48 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 92 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 19 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 33 | (9) | 43 | (3) | 2 |
| 2024 | 29 | (7) | 44 | (7) | (1) |
| 2025 | 30 | (5) | 46 | 19 | (30) |
| 2026 | 37 | (2) | 49 | 5 | (14) |
| 2027 | 55 | (0) | 49 | 3 | 2 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -124.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 4.10 | -39.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 3.97 | -41.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 4.79 | -29.6% |
Is Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc (MDRX) a buy or a sell? Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc (MDRX) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -39.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $6.81.