As of December 15, 2025, Meredith Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $125.07 per share. With the current market price at $59.07, this represents a potential upside of 111.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $106.19 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $125.07 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 79.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 111.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.5% - 7.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2977 million in 06-2021 to $3678 million by 06-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2021 | 2977 | 5% |
| 06-2022 | 2829 | -5% |
| 06-2023 | 2891 | 2% |
| 06-2024 | 2986 | 3% |
| 06-2025 | 3045 | 2% |
| 06-2026 | 3210 | 5% |
| 06-2027 | 3324 | 4% |
| 06-2028 | 3443 | 4% |
| 06-2029 | 3535 | 3% |
| 06-2030 | 3606 | 2% |
| 06-2031 | 3678 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 10% in 06-2021 to 10% by 06-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2021 | 307 | 10% |
| 06-2022 | 291 | 10% |
| 06-2023 | 298 | 10% |
| 06-2024 | 307 | 10% |
| 06-2025 | 314 | 10% |
| 06-2026 | 331 | 10% |
| 06-2027 | 342 | 10% |
| 06-2028 | 355 | 10% |
| 06-2029 | 364 | 10% |
| 06-2030 | 371 | 10% |
| 06-2031 | 379 | 10% |
with a 5-year average of $45 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 06-2022 | 48 |
| 06-2023 | 48 |
| 06-2024 | 49 |
| 06-2025 | 49 |
| 06-2026 | 54 |
| 06-2027 | 55 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 63 |
| Days Inventory | 14 |
| Days Payables | 61 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2022 | 444 | 62 | 38 | 15 | 329 |
| 2023 | 603 | 84 | 52 | (0) | 468 |
| 2024 | 623 | 87 | 54 | 5 | 478 |
| 2025 | 634 | 89 | 55 | 15 | 476 |
| 2026 | 671 | 94 | 58 | 18 | 501 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 106.19 | 79.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 125.07 | 111.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 55.99 | -5.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 82.13 | 39.0% |
Is Meredith Corp (MDP) a buy or a sell? Meredith Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Meredith Corp (MDP) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 111.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $59.07.