What is MDP.V's Intrinsic value?

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDP.V) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 17, 2025, Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.37 to $5.00 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $5.00 +52.4%
Earnings Power Value $0.37 -88.6%

Is Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDP.V) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $3.28, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  2. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 4.7% 5.7%
Adjusted beta 0.33 0.44
Cost of equity 5.2% 7.2%
Cost of debt 7.0% 14.0%
Tax rate 7.6% 12.2%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.36 0.36
After-tax WACC 5.6% 8.5%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 6.2%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $5.00 (52.4% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 7.2% (Low) to 5.2% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(9) to $(216)
  • Selected fair value: $-112.71 (-3536.3% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $4M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.5% - 5.6%
Enterprise Value $49M - $75M
Net Debt $45M
Equity Value $4M - $31M
Outstanding Shares 47M
Fair Value $0 - $1
Selected Fair Value $0.37

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $154M
Enterprise Value $198M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 15.85
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.36

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 67% $1.00
Earnings Power Value 33% $0.04
Weighted Average 100% $3.46

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $3.46, which is approximately 5.4% above the current market price of $3.28.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-4% to 6% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.