As of July 16, 2025, Mondelez International Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $44.32 to $90.71 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $90.71 | +35.9% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $77.50 | +16.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $64.45 | -3.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $47.82 | -28.4% |
| Earnings Power Value | $44.32 | -33.6% |
Is Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $66.74, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Mondelez International Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Cost of equity | 5.3% | 6.9% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.8% |
| Tax rate | 26.5% | 27.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.9% | 6.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $78 | $118,329M | 80.9% |
| 10-Year Growth | $91 | $135,433M | 66.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $56 | $90,271M | 74.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $70 | $109,075M | 58.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $4,172M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.3% - 4.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $66,262M - $84,465M |
| Net Debt | $17,977M |
| Equity Value | $48,285M - $66,488M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1,295M |
| Fair Value | $37 - $51 |
| Selected Fair Value | $44.32 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $86416M |
| Enterprise Value | $104393M |
| Trailing P/E | 24.00 |
| Forward P/E | 18.81 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 9.95 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 275.22% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 8.77% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.20 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $27.21 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $19.38 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $12.89 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $7.17 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $4.43 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $71.08 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Mondelez International Inc's intrinsic value is $71.08, which is approximately 6.5% above the current market price of $66.74.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Mondelez International Inc is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.